Introduction

Irrespective of the outcome of the referendum on independence on 18th September 2014, Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom will have to get along with each other, one way or another. If Scotland votes to leave the UK, the two neighbours will have to agree the terms of the divorce and how far and in what ways they wish to collaborate in the future. If Scotland votes to stay in the UK, a constitutional settlement will have to be reached that is acceptable to the existing UK as a whole.

However, the claims and the counterclaims made during the referendum campaign may make reaching either kind of accommodation difficult. Inevitably, the campaign in favour of independence is critical of the way in which the UK is currently run. It argues that the economy meets the needs of (the south east of) England rather than those of the UK as a whole. Britain is portrayed as a relatively unequal society, and it is suggested that this reflects a less egalitarian outlook amongst voters in England compared with those in Scotland. More generally, supporters of independence suggest that Scotland is at perpetual risk of having public policies imposed upon it that are at variance with the views of a majority of Scotland’s population (Scottish Government, 2013). 

Those on the other side of the campaign fence point out that Scotland currently enjoys higher public spending per head than does either England or Wales, but that due to declining oil revenues it would be unlikely to be able to sustain this position under independence. Indeed, it is argued that Scotland’s economy would suffer more generally under independence (HM Government, 2013). Meanwhile, doubts – or even outright opposition – are raised about the prospects for future collaboration between Scotland and the rest of the UK, not least in respect of a number of proposals put forward by the Scottish Government, including sharing the pound and continued access in Scotland to the BBC (Scottish Government, 2013; HM Government, 2014a). At the same time, it is argued that Scotland’s social needs can be met more effectively and securely if welfare is funded from the larger pool of UK-wide resources rather than from the smaller Scottish tax base alone (HM Government, 2014b).

The expression of such sentiments could well come at a price – of greater antagonism between the publics on the two sides of the border. People in Scotland could become more critical of what they feel they currently get out of their country’s membership of the United Kingdom. Those in the rest of the UK may increasingly think that Scotland is incapable of recognising a good deal when it sees one. As a result, the two publics’ aspirations for the future may diverge, making it more difficult for their political leaders to reach an accommodation once the referendum ballot is counted and concluded. 

In this chapter we look at public opinion on both sides of the border and what this might mean once the referendum is over. We start by looking at the prospects for a political accommodation in the event of a ‘Yes’ vote. Is there agreement on how the two countries should collaborate and, in particular, on the merits of the quite considerable sharing of facilities and institutions envisaged by the current Scottish Government? We then consider some of the issues that might have to be addressed if Scotland votes ‘No’. Do the two publics agree or disagree about how Scotland should be governed within the framework of the Union? Or might a ‘No’ vote simply be a prelude to further wrangling between London and Edinburgh?

We address these themes using data from two sources. The first comprises respondents to the British Social Attitudes survey who are resident in England or Wales. The second consists of the Scottish Social Attitudes survey, an entirely separate survey from British Social Attitudes, but one that is conducted north of the border using exactly the same methodological approach. In 2013 the two surveys asked a variety of questions that either were worded identically or else covered the same subject matter from the perspective of their particular part of the UK. In some cases these questions have also been asked in the past, enabling us to look at whether attitudes have actually grown apart or not.